1982 - Dov Chernichovsky


The cross-sectional picture of urban and rural fertility which emerges from recently published Indonesian national level data from the 1976 Intercensal Survey are described. The data reveal only small differences in the average numbers of children ever born or children surviving of ever married women (or mothers) in urban and rural areas of Indonesia. In urban areas, ever married mothers had a standardized average of 3.4 children ever born, and in rural areas 3.3 These averages cannot reveal any differences in past and present childbearing levels. The fertility of urban women, as opposed to rural women, appeared more highly associated with indicators which tend to directly or indirectly depress the average number of children ever born: a higher age at 1st marriage; a higher level of "sterility;" a higher survival ratio of children born; and a higher level of educational attainment. At least some of these factors might be regarded as associated with modernizing trends in the urban areas: increased accessibility to educational facilities; the opening of female opportunities outside the home so that marriage occurs later in life; and a better health environment so that there is less pregnancy wastage and time spent in bearing children. These factors help to provide an incentive to women to limit their fertility; knowledge of contraception methods provides a means. The depressing factors most highly associated with average rural fertility do not appear associated with modernization but with traditional folk customs regarding acceptable behavior. The inflating effects of early marriage are offset by a greater prevalence of marital disruption. This may reflect a cultural acceptability. The reasons may include adolescent or true sterility leading to disunion, the outmigration of a partner, or some other form of disharmony. Female labor force participation is more prevalent in rural than urban areas. There are both traditional and modern aspects to be seen in its restraining effect on average fertility. Both traditional and modern sector jobs have a negative association with fertility. Those jobs which take a woman away from the home were the most forceful in their association with lower fertility. Also noticed was what might be an overriding direct effect of the government's family planning program on the compatibility of agricultural occupations with childbearing, through its promotion of birth control. When stratified, the data yield variations in urban and rural fertility behavior which speak of change occurring in the traditional rural society.

  • Country: India
  • # Pages: 21
  • Publication Year: 1982
  • Type of Media: Mimeo


By studying intergenerational benefits from children, this paper shows that the economic analysis of fertility behavior in developing economics can provide a systematic discussion of this behavior. The major hypotheses set forth are: 1) the effect of income on fertility depends on the source and timing of income; 2) in a lifetime context, parents, or would-be parents, who have higher incomes at young ages compared with the income they anticipate at old age, are expected to have a higher demand for children; and 3) the reverse of the latter is predicted for parents who anticipate relatively higher incomes at old age. These hypotheses follow the idea that, in the absence of other appropriate means for intertemporal transfers of wealth, parents even out the lifetime welfare through fertility behavior. Under these circumstances, fertility rates are expected to increase in communities where children abandon their traditional commitments to their aging parents, as may happen during periods of economic and cultural transition. A decline in mortality rates will induce lower fertility. This model suggests that a tax-financed social security scheme along with family planning will be conducive to a reduction in fertility. A test on data from an Indian village in 1968-69 suggests that in a traditional setting there is a correlation between household welfare, measured by income or assets, and the presence of grown children. Income has a positive effect on fertility when the parents' incomes comes from labor rather than human and nonhuman capital which provides income at later stages of life. Longitudinal data depicting income, savings, and fertility patterns over time should prove more promising in exploring the issues discussed.

  • Country: Botswana
  • # Pages: 74
  • Publication Year: 1982
  • Type of Media: Scientific Report
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